UK troops for Ukraine and other stupidities

Zelensky has been talking about a European army. “Our army alone is not enough, we need your support”. Zelensky here it talking about European troops fighting Russia alongside his troops. [1] Meanwhile Starmer is talking about UK troops being part of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine following a peace deal. It has to be noted that a European “peacekeeping” force also seems to be part of the Trump administration’s plans for Ukraine.

Stop. Why would the Kremlin accept this? One of the central reasons for their military action in Ukraine was concern about Ukraine becoming, (to borrow John Mearsheimer’s phrase), a “Western bulwark on Russia’s borders”. The Russians would, and quite rightly, notice that Zelensky might not distinguish between “peacekeepers” and a European army “supporting” him. There would be every temptation to provoke a conflict and drag Europe (and eventually NATO despite the Trump administration’s attempts to say that Article 5 would not apply), into a war with Russia. Indeed, precisely this was one of Putin’s stated reasons for the Russian intervention in Ukraine. This is why one of their demands is for demilitarisation of Ukraine.

Putting UK or other European troops into Ukraine whether to “support” the Kiev regime or as “peacekeepers” of a settlement would be insane. Luckily, there is still one rational actor in the room; Putin. I can’t imagine the Kremlin accepting any peace deal that would see large numbers of UK or European troops in Ukraine. That would be exactly counter to one of their principal war aims. What is worrying is that US and EU leaders still think this idea can fly. It shows that they still have not understood Russia’s position.

I have noticed a few stories in the Western media in the last few days promoting the idea that Russia’s army is in deep difficultly, they are experiencing ammunition shortages, massive casualties and are losing momentum on the battlefield. I speculate that these stories are being cooked up just at this moment by Ukrainian and British intelligence and fed to media assets in order to try to influence European leaders to continue the war. This is one story in the Guardian. We are told that Ukraine has retaken a village in Eastern Ukraine. [3] The Guardian’s Luke Harding writes: ” The village’s recapture bolsters Kyiv’s argument that Moscow’s victory is not inevitable and that with sufficient western support it can claw back territory.”. Good timing. The same story repeats, uncritically, Zelensky’s claim that Putin is getting ready to positively attack NATO in the near future. On the one hand we are being asked to believe that Russia is so weak that a little more Western support could turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favour. On the other hand we are being told that Putin is getting ready to go into direct combat with the full combined forces of NATO. These are mutually incompatible possibilities. But Luke Harding does not appear to notice. It is amazing that Zelensky’s ravings are still being treated seriously by the liberal media; that is until we understand that these are simply intelligence or propaganda operations to manipulate public opinion.

Another very stupid line is the one put out by multiple European leaders, for example German defence minister, Boris Pistorius and EU foreign affairs representative Kaja Kallas, is that the US should not have “given away its negotiation chips before negotiations started”:

“Why are we giving them [Russia] everything that they want even before the negotiations have been started?” said Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister. “It’s appeasement. It has never worked.”

The German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, also complained that too much had been given away. “In my view it would have been better to speak about a possible Nato membership for Ukraine or possible losses of territory at the negotiating table,” Pistorius said.

[4]

These people apparently think that Russia’s demand that Ukraine not join NATO and that Crimea and other territory in the East be formally ceded to Russia are some kind of “negotiation chips”. Again, all these comments do is show that these people simply have no understanding of Russia’s position. These points are fundamental and existential for Russia, not some kind of bargaining position. Don’t these people think about anything? Apparently not.

Update – if you thought it couldn’t get worse, think again:

The meeting will discuss what defence capabilities Europe could provide to give Ukraine credible security guarantees, including a plan for Ukraine to be given automatic Nato membership in the event of a clear ceasefire breach by Russia. [5]

This is so ‘out there’ one has to wonder what these people are on. Russia started their ‘special operation’ chiefly to block Ukraine joining NATO. And, they are going to agree to a settlement which contains a mechanism for Ukraine to join NATO? (Apart from the humiliating nature of this proposal for Russia – they obviously aren’t going to accept it for strategic reasons). Were (hint: phantasy land), this to be implemented how long would it be before Ukraine managed to provoke Russia into a ceasefire breach or staged a ‘false flag’ operation? Notice – that were such a mechanism to be implemented there would be a rapid flow from ‘ceasefire breach’ to Ukraine joining NATO to Russia-NATO war; the one thing that even Biden understood had to be kept off the table. This may only be a media report, but, if such ideas are circulating it is evidence (if more was needed) that in Europe they have totally lost their heads and have absolutely no grasp of the reality of the situation.

Notes

UK troops for Ukraine and other stupidities

Related Posts

Trump’s first big mistake on UkraineTrump’s first big mistake on Ukraine

The problem with Trump’s ceasefire planThe problem with Trump’s ceasefire plan

Propaganda Watch (monthly roundup)Propaganda Watch (monthly roundup)