Is Zelensky shifting his position?

Previously, the US had suggested Ukraine should hand over the parts of Donbas it still controls to Russia, but now Washington has suggested a compromise version in which Ukrainian troops would withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance into this territory, said Zelenskyy. [1]

This is Zelensky speaking on the 11 December.

This is from the ’28 point peace plan’ released on November 21:

Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone. [2]

So; not new. I don’t really blame Zelensky for doing what any politician might do – tell a few lies to try to manage his difficult situation. But – is any journalist on the Guardian going to correct the record? I am not holding my breathe.

That said – this is just possibly promising, as is Zelensky’s manoeuvring around elections and, now, talk of how such an arrangement about Donetsk could be put to the electorate in said elections.

I suspect team Ukraine is beginning to grasp the realities of the situation. The US is no longer going to send them free weapons or money. Even the, (I would imagine vital), intelligence sharing is apparently in doubt; that is Trump is using it as a lever to get Zelensky to agree to something. And that means everything comes down to the Europeans. There are two options for the EU to raise the money to keep Kiev afloat for another year, or two; borrow money on the markets or steal the Russian assets. (Very approximately, Kiev seems to need about $100 billion a year [3]). Apparently, the former requires a unanimous Council vote. Strangely; nothing in the media about which way Hungary and Slovakia are blowing on that. The latter, it seems, can be pushed through on a QMV (majority vote) basis – but that means alienating core founder member Belgium. We will know by December 19 – after the next EU summit. So; I assume there will be no ‘peace deal’ before then, as Kiev will wait and see how that goes. They might see a grant of $100 billion as giving them more negotiating leverage. But – the reality for Kiev; losing territory albeit slowly, suffering high levels of desertions, (even the mainstream media is beginning to admit this), [4] and entirely dependent on a squabbling family of European leaders for money, who are strong on words, but may not be able to back them up, must be beginning to confront them.

Notes

Is Zelensky shifting his position?

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