I read somewhere at the start * of this that wars end when one side no longer believes they have a reasonable chance of achieving their aims on the battlefield. As long both sides believe they can achieve their aims militarily, the war will continue.
Russia has a clear set of objectives. All the signs are that they are likely to be able to achieve them militarily. albeit slowly and at cost. It is not clear exactly what Ukraine’s and Europe’s aims are. We are, obviously, a long way from “defeat Russia in Ukraine”, which meant driving Russia back to the 1991 borders. Nor do we hear much about “porcupine Ukraine” these days; it is clear that that, (building up a strong Ukraine which could hold the line and fend off Russian attacks ad infinitum), has, (predictably, and predicted by this site of course), faltered on the impossibility of building a 100% effective missile defence shield, not to mention the actual lack of missiles for such a shield. What now? There seem to be some who still hope that the economic pressure will lead to a Russian collapse, or that Zelensky’s “long-range sanctions” will lead to a collapse, or popular revolt. The Russian economy is under very significant pressure, there is no doubt. If this goes on much longer more resources will have to be diverted from civilian expenditure towards the hole in the state budget. [1] However; at 22% of GDP, levels of state indebtedness are far less than in many European countries. Russia is not at the point of economic collapse. Together with a general resignation in the population making popular revolt unlikely, (plus most Russians, while tired of war, more or less agree with the war aims), my sense is that the Russian state can absorb this for several more years. So – what is Europe and Kiev’s strategy? The only strategy is to continue and hope something will change, that some miracle will save them. But even this irrational strategy has a significant weakness. Both European budgets and the supply of Ukrainian figthing men are nearing their limits. (Again as predicted by this site), despite the huge EU loan of Euro 90 billion in 2026 Zelensky is already back for more. The war-mad Baltic states are pressing the EU. [2]
If reason sets in, or if the EU signals it can’t find yet more money, (or declines to provide the last of its key air defences to be ‘burned up’ in Ukraine), or, if the US President finally finds the balls to face down the Russia-phobes in the US foreign policy establishment and in both parties, and call off US military support, then Kiev will have no choice but to sign the surrender document, in whatever form Russia is currently offering it. The pressure is on Kiev, not Russia.
The final surrender will be a humiliation for the EU (and the UK), but there is a narrative escape route. They can tell their populations that they prevented a total Russsian “conquest” of Ukraine. This is one advantage of spinning the yarn that Russia wanted to conquer all of Ukraine. Heck; they can even claim that they have saved Europe from a Russian invasion! Then, they can get on with their programme of remilitarisation, (“porcupine Europe”). Which, incidentally, does not bode very well for the future.
The problem lies in Ukraine. Not widely publicised in the West, but the fact is that Zelensky was elected in 2019 on a platform of ending the original Donbas conflict. He genuinely tried to do this, but was blocked by right-wing militias who, in effect, threatened civil war if a deal was reached. [3] Those militias, and their ideologies, still exist in Ukraine. How are they going to react when Zelensky, or someone, signs the surrender document? Will Ukraine fracture into a totally failed state, with no functioning civil government and an armed conflict between heavily armed militias, and a rump loyal army (funded by the EU) trying to suppress them? Some commentators suggest that this is why Europe blindly continues to fund this conflict. Expensive though that is, the end game could be even worse for them. A Somalia type situation right on their doorsteps; millions more refugees flowing into Europe, armed militias with links to criminal gangs seeping weapons into Europe. Russia can hardly be expected to help them pick up the pieces. The end of this war could be a real doomsday scenario for Europe. (And, the UK, heavily responsible for this mess, will, as usual, walk free).
The problem is the end-game is not pretty for Europe, and this, along with an irrational inability to even talk to Russia, prevents them signing the surrender deal. (Had they forced Kiev back in 2019 to implement Minsk, and made some realistic compromises with Russia, they could have averted a humiliation; too late now). And, so, they continue in blind hope, setting up one new narrative which portrays one fantastical path to victory after another. It could be that their dreams come true and Russia collapses; but, looked at objectively, all the fracture points seem to lie on the Ukraianian side. And, if and when the EU+UK does eventually authorise the signing of the surrender document by Kiev they will have their work cut out for them, holding Ukraine together.
The war will end when one of Kiev’s fracture points gives way. It could end via a Russian collapse but that really is very unlikely indeed. All of Kiev’s fracture points are ‘hot’. Russia collapsing is a pipe-dream for which there is little solid reason to believe it is likely. When? Difficult to know – but can Ukraine really get through another year of this? Already they have lost their steel industry and grain export route from Odessa. Russia is now trying to close off the Danube route. Kiev, defenceless, is being picked apart by Russian bombing. Opinion polls suggest increasing numbers of Ukrainians are ready for a compromise to end the war. It does look to this author like we are beginning to enter the final stage of this war.
* in a report from the Rand Corporation
Notes
- https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-raises-2027-military-spending-by-27-budget-documents-show-2026-09-28/
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-will-probably-have-give-new-loan-ukraine-estonian-pm-michal-says-2026-10-16/
- “But the most passionate opposition to Zelensky’s initiative came from hardline Ukrainian nationalists. Thousands of protesters gathered on Kyiv’s Maidan Square under the slogan ‘No capitulation!’ More menacingly, several Ukrainian nationalist militias, including the Azov Battalion that was then fighting in the Luhansk region of Donbas, refused to accept the agreement.” Matthews, Owen. Overreach: The Inside Story of Putin and Russia’s War Against Ukraine (p. 149). HarperCollins Publishers. Kindle Edition.