A depleted – but far from defeated Ukraine – looks to 2026 with few good military options, even though a critical €90bn (£79bn) loan from the EU has been agreed. The financing will help Kyiv to continue defending at its current intensity until late 2027, but it will not lead to a transformation of its battlefield prospects.
On land, the pattern of the last two years should, in the first instance, continue. Russia has held the initiative since 2024, but only gaining territory incrementally, largely because it constantly throws people into the “meat grinder” of the frontline. [1]
All the credible military reporting is that for a long time Russian tactics have been to send forward small groups of soldiers to infiltrate Ukrainian lines. The “meat grinder” appears to be another war-monger hoax. I just did an Internet search for “Russian tactics in Ukraine small groups” and found multiple pages on Western sources confirming this. [2] Dan Sabbagh could have done this too. One imagines, in fact he knows this perfectly well. But just prefers the “meat-grinder” narrative because it suits the story he wants to tell about ‘evil Russia’.
At the current rate of Russian advance that would take at least a year (and arguably more given the predominately urban environment) and another 400,000 or more Russians killed, disabled, or hurt – a cost Kyiv is willing to try to inflict. [1]
But Dan Sabbagh is also very keen to report stories about how Russia is gearing up to invade Europe “within 5 years” e.g. based on claims by NATO Secretary Rutte and other war-mongers [3] such as the head of Britain’s MI6 [4] at length and, apparently, as if he considers them credible and serious.
Go figure.
Notes
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/24/ukraine-best-hope-russia-inches-forward-on-battlefield
- E.g. https://atlasinstitute.org/how-small-reconnaissance-units-are-playing-a-critical-role-in-russian-frontline-movements-in-2025/
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/09/nato-chief-russia-quantum-leap-defence
- https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/dec/15/new-mi6-head-blaise-metreweli-speech-russia-threat
