Not good for its supporters; Belgium, the key player is opposed. Kaka Kallas recently said that it was hard to see how the EU could push it over the line without Belgium’s cooperation. (I don’t know the details; but perhaps Belgium would be required to create a law to force Euroclear to swap the funds for the Commission’s IOUs?) . Other countries probably or possibly against are: Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Malta. Even Italy. [1]
So. Even if the lunatics at the Commission and the Coalition of the Losers could push it through it would rupture the EU. They might be willing to sideline Hungary and Slovakia – but not Belgium, a founding member. And Czech Republic is probably also considered ‘one of us’ by the Commission.
There is no plan B! Because Hungary would almost certainly block a common EU loan, the only other EU level alternative. So; there must be massive pressure on Belgium to change their mind. Even if they do push it through it leaves the EU looking weak. The problem is, perhaps, the EU is a club whose primary raison d’être is economic cooperation and the advantages that accrue from that. Realistically; how could you get 31 disparate countries to fully align their foreign policy? SO; even if they push it through, it will leave the EU looking weak. Not only will they face legal challenges from Russia, but also potentially from their own member states.
Let’s see what happens but even if passed there remains a question as to whether it will be implemented.
See also:
—https://thenewobserver.co.uk/stealing-the-russian-assets/
Notes