The EU has a new “High Representative” – Kaja Kallas, a former Estonian Prime Minister. I noted her appointment and expected something stupid. I am not disappointed. Here she is calling for the seizure of the full amount of frozen Russian assets in Europe.
Why is this stupid? Partly because it is theft. Despite trying, and you can bet they have tried, up till now no legal way has been found to seize these assets. (They have limited themselves to stealing the interest). That means; there is no legal way. You can hardly abuse Russia for being “rogue” etc. and then simply steal billions of dollars of their money at whim. They will look. like crooks. This is not a good look for the EU. Another point; these are Russian assets and they will want them back. If they are stolen and given to Ukraine, what then? What happens when/if the war is over and Russia asks for them back? “Oh, sorry, we don’t have them?”. How is that going to help produce a negotiated settlement which Russia agrees to?
It seems that this very foolish woman still thinks that Ukraine is going to win this war!
Russia was betting on “outlasting” western allies, she said, but the war for Ukraine remained winnable.
This, while the front line is crumbling and Zelensky is clearing getting ready to settle and everyone can see that. She talks about “compensation” – by which she means reparations. She is drooling at the thought of making Putin pay huge reparations. like Germany had to at the end of WWI. That didn’t end too well, as far as I recall! But, more to the point, this is predicated on Russia losing. Only if Russia is totally defeated can you force terms on them, including paying reparations. In which world is Russia totally defeated?
This woman, like most EU (and British) politicians, has no theory and no analysis of the situation. She trots out a few lines that connect to other lines in the delusional narratives. And this passes for serious commentary on the political situation. It is really distressing to watch. For example:
“If they [the US] reduce the aid, then we need to continue supporting Ukraine, because I’m worried about what happens if Russia wins. I think we will have more wars, bigger wars,” she said.
This is the “China is watching” theory. We must continue to pour weapons and money into the bottomless pit of Ukraine to prove to China that we are serious people and so avoid “bigger wars”. I think that China will be drawing the very opposite conclusion; that we are mad. I’ve discussed this in a previous post. Were China to make conclusions about how the West will act if they invade Taiwan based on how the West acts in Ukraine that would be an example of heuristics, arguing from analogy. It would be an irrational basis for a foreign policy decision. It could work that way; but, it is unlikely. [1] It is interesting how, without any thought or understanding, so many Western “leaders” subscribe to this confused argument; they assume China is not making rational foreign policy decisions. Is that because they, themselves are doing this?
Of course, we have the inevitable Baltic State paranoia about Russia:
Kallas said, adding: “Putin really wants to humiliate Europe. That is what we have to keep in mind all the time.”
I have seen zero evidence that Putin wants to humiliate Europe. Where is her evidence? You can’t just say things. Russia is acting to defend their strategic security. They would prefer to be doing business with Europe; the last 25 years of Russian policy shows that. Indeed, some months ago Putin even made a point of saying that he “respects” Ukrainians. In his widely misquoted essay on Ukraine published in 2021 Putin repeatedly says he respects Ukraine. For example:
We respect the Ukrainian language and traditions. We respect Ukrainians’ desire to see their country free, safe and prosperous. [2]
He has also spoken about how he fully understands how, based on their history with Russia, the Baltic States are very nervous about Russia.
These public comments by the EU’s High Representative show that she has no more, possibly even less, grasp of the actual political-historical situation in front of her than her predecessors. No grasp at all. All these people swim around in a sea of their own delusional narratives, never breaking free and never even glancing at reality or an objective analysis. It is really distressing to see; like watching mad people in an asylum who think they are completely normal and this is how life is.
Notes
- John Mearsheimer discusses how states mostly come to rational decisions, in his book: How States Think. 2023 Yale.
- http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181