There seem to be two divergent tracks. The US is genuinely looking to end the Ukraine war. Though, in truth, one can only say this up to a point. After a brief message to Kiev they have apparently turned the arms and intelligence tap back on. If the US really wanted to end this war they could just turn off the tap. It seems that they are trying to get some kind of negotiated solution which is not the same as simply ending support for the war. The problem is that Russia is not interested in any negotiated solution which does not satisfy their key demands. For this reason I have quite limited optimism around the talks in Saudi Arabia. Still, I do believe that the Trump administration would like to end it.
Not so, Europe it seems. And not so the liberal media. It is strange, but liberals seem to be the biggest war mongers of all. Zelensky is still being fêted by the European leader class and liberal media. The latter are still hanging off his every word. The Churchillian aura which they attached to him has worn off; but they still take him seriously. For example:
Ukraine remains deeply sceptical of any Russian agreement, pointing to past instances where Moscow failed to honour its commitments. [1]
This is one of Zelensky’s lines, designed to work against the Russia and build up support for Kiev. It is believed and echoed widely in Western media circles. Here by the Guardian’s Russia correspondent, Pjotr Sauer. The claim is false. It relates, of course, to the Minsk agreements. There were ceasefire violations by both sides during the Minsk period. Russia may have been involved in the field prior to the collapse of Minsk 1. However; the central reality of Minsk is that it envisaged some kind of regional autonomy for Donbas. (Something a bit like Wales in the UK). Kiev never delivered on that. Indeed by late 2021 they were beginning to openly repudiate it. Its German sponsor Angela Merkel openly claimed she had signed it in bad faith. (According to John Mearsheimer Hollande has said something similar). The central reason Minsk failed was because Kiev repudiated it and its Western sponsors failed to pressure Kiev to implement it, on the contrary, supporting them in abrogating it. How the Western media can bring themselves to print these open fibs by Zelensky as truth is only possible in a world where deep delusion is the absolute norm. Unfortunately, narrative lines can be operational. The idea here is to sabotage any settlement with Russia and substitute for that some kind of “porcupine Ukraine” idea. (von der Leyen’s term for arming Ukraine so much that Russia cannot attack ‘again’). This is a stupid idea, because it won’t work. Russia will not sign up to a settlement which is based on “porcupine Ukraine” and no amount of spikes can prevent Russia continuing to render Ukraine non-functioning through military means. They are so intoxicated with the idea of all those weapons and acting tough and ‘facing down Putin’, that they haven’t even thought beyond the ends of their noses. I am talking about the leaders. But it would be nice if the journalists at least could think. But not there either.
Porcupine Ukraine is no more a viable strategy than “defeating Russia in Ukraine” was. Porcupine Ukraine is inconsistent with a settlement to the conflict. Porcupine Ukraine, if implemented, would mean endless war or Ukraine’s collapse.
Update 5-4-25
The problem is that this idea of porcupine Ukraine is now embedded in the political-media narrative. As so often, a propaganda line becomes reified into reality and soon is treated as if it were absolute truth. Already this mad idea of arming Ukraine and locating British and French troops in Ukraine is being accepted in political and media circles as gospel. This is just an example from the Guardian: “Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that European military planners could be ready within a month with details of a foreign troop contingent in Ukraine seen as critical to ending the war with Russia. ” [2] Notice the “seen as critical”. This is how the narrative building works. The use of the passive is very characteristic.
Notes
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/24/us-russia-ceasefire-talks-saudi-arabia-ukraine-zelenskyy-trump-putin-war-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-67e146038f089d0bd893cbaa#block-67e146038f089d0bd893cbaa
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/05/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-missile-attack-in-zelenskyys-home-town-kills-18
