The Guardian’s political correspondent Kiran Stacey has written an article with the headline, “Starmer warns Putin of ‘severe consequences’ if he breaches peace deal”. [1] Does Kiran Stacey know this is delusional?
Starmer is quoted as saying, “The point of the security arrangements is to make it clear to Russia there will be severe consequences if they are to breach any deal”. Stop. Is anyone thinking? Starmer obviously isn’t. He is drunk on his own pompous statements. It doesn’t look like the media is thinking either. Amusingly, as this writer predicted in a recent post, it looks like they are already back-tracking on the “boots on the ground” idea:
But the prime minister did not reiterate his promise to put boots on the ground, instead saying allied forces would be deployed to support Ukrainian troops, including by sea and air, rather than replacing them.
They are still plugging this idea about “enforcing the ceasefire”. Have they not grasped; Russia started this war because they considered a Western military build up in Ukraine to be a strategic threat to them. Russia is winning the war. Why is Russia going to agree to a ceasefire which permits its “enforcement” by their enemies? I can’t see that happening, and senior figures in the Russian political establishment have gone out of their way in recent days to remind the West that they will not accept armed forces from NATO countries in Ukraine. It looks, and hopefully so, that all this bold talk of “Putin better watch out” and “enforcement” is simply going to melt away. IF there is some kind of a ceasefire, there will be some kind of European monitoring mission, at a distance, perhaps using their surveillance aircraft flying over NATO airspace.
As before, I think this is mostly about narratives. They are trying to escape from this looking like the strong party. They have lost. At some level they probably do understand that. So now they are doubling down on the idea, (which has been around for a long time in fact), of turning Ukraine into a heavily militarised entity able to “repel further Russian aggression”. However, that means the problem remains. At some point this idea about continuing to flood weapons into Ukraine is going to collide with the reality that one of Russia’s key demands to end the war is the demilitarisation of Ukraine.
Update – the “operational phase”
If these people were consciously setting out to make total idiots of themselves they couldn’t do much better. This is today’s statement from No. 10:
We’ve moved into an operational phase now and what that means is … bringing together military planners to look at the potential design of force structures, interoperability and what capability is needed to ensure a sovereign Ukraine is able to defend itself for generations to come.
“That includes looking at everything from aircraft, tanks, troops and intelligence capabilities, and how we can best put them to use to support Ukraine.
“This delivers on the prime minister’s plan to support Ukraine by ramping up delivery of weapons and equipment, boosting Ukraine’s defensive capabilities in the long-term, working with allies to develop robust security assurances and keeping up the pressure on President Putin. [2]
Reality check. There is no ceasefire yet, apart from a doubtful and confused possible agreement about energy infrastructure which may already have collapsed. All this talk of “operational phases” is predicated on a “peace deal”. It is strange; as soon as there is any prospect of peace, (and, in reality, that is far-off), what do they do? Do they talk about “supporting the peace”? No; they talk about ramping up the war!
“Keeping up the pressure on President Putin”. In your dreams!, so to speak. The pressure, at the moment, is all on Ukraine, whose front is collapsing.
But, above all, this is nothing to do with a possible settlement. Russia has been absolutely clear; one of their aims is the demilitarisation of Ukraine. I cannot see them stopping until that aim is substantially achieved. Statements about “ramping up delivery of weapons and equipment, boosting Ukraine’s defensive capabilities in the long-term” condemn Ukraine and the Ukrainian people (those of them left) – to endless war. And, for what? They aren’t going to defeat Russia. As Putin pointed out in, I think 2022, teh longer this goes on, the more Ukraine loses. And, just so Starmer, Macron, Tusk and Scholz (now Merz) can avoid looking like they lost? This is perhaps the “Afghanistan scenario”? An already lost war prolonged for years at huge cost in money and lives simply because no one wanted to be the one who pulled the plug on it. There is something evil about this.
Notes
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/20/keir-starmer-warns-vladimir-putin-of-severe-consequences-if-he-breaches-peace-deal-ukraine
- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/mar/21/labour-net-zero-ed-miliband-nhs-benefits-cuts-conservatives-uk-politics-latest-news-updates?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-67dd5e0e8f08e154ecc15638#block-67dd5e0e8f08e154ecc15638