The New Observer Uncategorized The moment of truth in the Ukraine war

The moment of truth in the Ukraine war

It is being reported that Zelinsky is to go to Washington and present his plan for victory. It is being reported that his plan is based on the West supplying him with long-range missiles and giving him permission to strike deep into Russia. Apparently he is now asking for longer-range missiles than the 300 Km ATACMS.

As we have often commented upon in this journal, there is a dilemma at the root of Western support for Kiev. They want them to win, which means defeat Russia, but they don’t want to “provoke” Russia into escalating. The completely contradictory nature of these two aims, obviously you can’t defeat Russia without provoking them, is never talked about. They, the State Department, NATO and European capitals can get away with this because of the fact that the ‘free press’ in the West carefully avoids asking any difficult questions. The media just lets them get away with the inane formula, “defeat Russia in Ukraine”, to try to gloss the irrationally of their policy.

And, so, for two years, they have poured weapons into Ukraine. Tens of thousands have died. Huge destruction. And the dilemma is as unresolved today as it was two years ago.

Zelensky’s victory plan is one final attempt on his part to resolve the dilemma. Escalate. From his point of view, that is fine. This will drag the US into the war, and the balance will shift in his favour. In Kiev they are, it seems, willing to start WWIII in order to save their new order, though they will tell the US that Russia won’t escalate.

What is the US going to do? A difficult choice. Escalate against their better judgment? See Zelensky lose and Russia win? My guess is they will simply try and prolong the current balancing act in some way, perhaps provide some other military capability instead of the long-range missiles.

At any event it does seem that the Ukraine crisis may be moving to some kind of denouement.