UK Prime Minister is seeking to join the EU’s loan scheme for Ukraine. He explains why:
In relation to the EU loan that we are discussing participating in, that is very good for Ukraine, because it will give Ukraine capability that is desperately needs in year five of this conflict.
It’s very good for the UK, because of the capability that leads to jobs in the United Kingdom.
And it’s very good for UK-EU relations, which is very important as we go on to the various discussions. [1]
So of the three reasons to give UK taxpayers money to corporate arms companies to send weapons to the regime in Kiev, two are purely about how it benefits the UK. It helps the UK draw closer to the EU, and it helps ‘jobs’ in the UK. Obviously no mention of the fourth ‘benefit’, “it helps shareholders in arms companies make a nice profit”.
And, the first reason. It helps Ukraine. No one in the political establishment in Europe ever says and literally no one in the media ever asks – how is this going to help Ukraine? Well, the best they can do at the moment, and von der Leyen sometimes trots out this line, is that this will somehow help Ukraine “improve their position at the negotiation table”, (sic). No one in the media comments on the transition from “the Russian regime will collapse”, “Ukraine may even take back Crimea”, “defeat Russia in Ukraine” to the present idea of how best to manage the defeat.
Barring the longed for regime change, which is no more than a dream, in Russia all the signs are that Russia has the means to continue this. In as much as the economy is under pressure, and there is no doubt it is, the EU miscalculates. For Russia, unlike, perhaps, the EU, this is not a simple fiscal cost-benefit calculation. It is existential. This means that the leadership is not going to change tack because of economic pressure. If the economic pressure looked like itself causing their defeat, for example, an inability to manufacture arms, they would respond to this as a military threat. (There are rumblings that they may decide to try to cut it short – which would potentially lead to war with Europe). And so, what can Ukraine reasonably hope for? Barring something unexpected, and you should not base strategy on pipe-dreams, Ukraine has no realistic possibility of significantly improving their position. All this extra money does is prolong the situation. And more people will lose their lives or limbs.
Notes