Trump has apparently threatened Russia with sanctions and tariffs if they don’t “get to the table right now”.
What has probably happened is that after his administration “paused” weapons supplies and intelligence sharing with Kiev he came under immense pressure and has caved. Analysts like John Mearsheimer have been warning for some time of this risk. Trump might have good instincts on this war and how to end it, but he is surrounded by people who can be hawkish and he may be susceptible to being led off-course by them. Yesterday Trump said: “I think Ukraine wants to make a deal because they don’t have a choice. I also think that Russia wants to make a deal because in a certain different way – a different way that only I know – they have no choice either.” [1] I theorise that the unspoken lever there is what has now come into the open and the trigger was Russia seemingly taking advantage of the US withdrawing intelligence support from Ukraine to launch a large missile attack. After this people said to Trump; if you don’t threaten Russia now it will really look like you are ‘aligned’ with Russia. One could argue that Russia’s decision to launch a large attack at this point was a mistake though it is consistent with their overall policy to keep pressing forward until, one way or another, their key demands are met.
This is a mistake for this reason; it is very important for the Russian leadership to be treated as equals to the US and to be treated with respect. Indeed one can see how they have been warming in recent days to just this approach. To some extent this may reflect a certain egoism on the part of elites in Moscow. They demand to be treated as befits the leadership of a Great Power. Some commentators see in this a somewhat exaggerated sense of importance. John Mearsheimer categorises Russia as a Great Power. So from that point of view, (Russia really is a Great Power), it is not unreasonable. Furthermore; how the leadership is treated also effects the country itself. A country which is seen as a Great Power has more status and in turn this will impact positively on their diplomatic and economic relationships with other countries. Being treated with respect is something worth fighting for not just for you but also for the country. It is an economic and political asset for the country. By lumping Ukraine and Russia together and addressing them at the same level, with, naturally, the US as the boss in the room Trump has committed a significant diplomatic misstep. I am not surprised. I have always doubted he has the skill and patience for real diplomacy – and, as I have mentioned above, even to the extent that he does, he is liable to being pushed into unwise positions by Russophobes in the US establishment.
Given the very low levels of US-Russia trade there seems to be only one area in which the US has any more economic leverage; as far as I understand it, (and there is a real dearth of reporting on these questions by the mainstream media), the US does not currently have secondary sanctions on Russian oil and gas. That seems to me, the one area, where the US could cause significant additional pain to Russia. This may be what Trump has in mind. (It would also hurt the Europeans. But they might be forced to buy more oil and gas from the US and less from Russia – which would be a typically Trumpian policy).
Apart from the issue of equality and respect there is another problem with this announcement. Whoever advised Trump to make it does not understand Russia’s position. Again; I am not surprised. There have been positive signs that negotiators on the new administration have understood much of Russia’s position, but it may be that the understanding is only rather superficial. Russia’s demands are not bargainable positions which they can give up if the costs to maintain them are increased. (I have explained the mistaken theorising which lies behind this idea in my last post; see ‘cost-benefit analysis’). So, threatening Russia with increased costs shows us that whoever is now driving US policy is yet another one who has no understanding of Russia’s position. If they don’t understand Russia’s position then that does not bode well for a negotiated solution.
Russia is engaging in diplomacy with the US because they see it as a way to achieve their goals. Their engagement does not indicate any softening or even slowing down of their goals. That is a lesson which can be drawn from their overnight missile raid on Ukraine.
This single post on Trump’s website, Truth Social, does not upend the ‘peace process’. Putin has shown he has great patience and also rather a lot of personal humility. He is willing to endure insults if he understands that reacting to them would not be in Russia’s interests. But, any steps which make it look like Russia is being forced into negotiations by the US, and therefore make it look like the US is in the driving seat and Russia is a vassal state, go contrary to Russian foreign policy of taking their place in a ‘multi-polar world’. With this in mind even the threat of sanctions and tariffs poses a serious threat to the ‘peace process’. Equally, or more worryingly, this move simply shows us that the new US administration does not really understand Russia’s position.
A week ago I increased my estimate of Trump succeeding in bringing the Ukraine war to an end from 10% (when he was inaugurated) to 50%. Following this, (and factoring out European efforts to keep the war going), I would now say the chances are back to about 20%.
Update
Possibly Trump is trying to fix his error. He has been making statements about how it is easier to deal with Russia than Ukraine. Hopefully, this will just be a blip.
Notes