In March/April 2022 the initial peace talks between Russian and Ukraine broke down. I am not 100% sure why. A lot of people specifically refer to Boris Johnson’s trip to Ukraine made at around that time. In general, the following seems likely to be a real summary:
By April 2022, the situation on the battlefield appeared to be turning in Ukraine’s favour. … Western countries were scaling up military aid to Kyiv and escalating sanctions on Moscow.. [1]
Professor Mearsheimer says that Boris Johnson promised military support and this was decisive. In general, it seems at that time Kiev made a calculation that the West would support them. Well; there has been a change of administration in the US and there is no more financial support from that source. And, it is very doubtful that Europe can double their contribution, which is what it would take to fill this gap. It is even doubtful if Europe can continue to maintain their contribution at the existing level; this is why they are so desperately trying to steal the Russian assets.
In the context of the peace plan, which certainly does require significant concessions from Ukraine, Europe and the UK are rallying around Ukraine, once again promising “we will be with you forever”. But, will they? As of today – they don’t even have a concrete plan for where the money is going to come from. If Belgium and Euroclear don’t facilitate the heist, and there are strong signs they are reluctant to, [2] then this means the EU, (and UK), is going to have to borrow it. Are they ready to find 130 Billion Euros in 2026/27? [3] That is a lot of debt and far in excess of the kind of sums they have been giving so far. (Not to mention rumblings from Orban which suggest he could block any EU initiatives which require a unanimous vote).
If I were Zelensky I wouldn’t take this chance. I would exit now, with dignity.
Notes
- https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-happened-last-time-russia-ukraine-held-peace-talks-2025-05-12/
- https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/11/15/euroclear-the-belgian-institution-managing-frozen-russian-assets-that-will-not-rule-out-suing-the-eu_6747484_19.html
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eus-frozen-asset-funding-ukraine-may-need-bridging-solution-dombrovskis-says-2025-11-04/
