The situation with Ukraine remains opaque. On the one hand the new US administration has sent positive signals. They have indicated that they understand and accept Russia’s objection to Ukraine joining NATO. (This whole discourse about ‘Ukraine will join NATO’ is bizarre because the people who push it simultaneously know it is not realistic. It seems they want to insist on the ‘right’ to insist on this, even though they know it can and will not happen, not just because of Russian objections but because Ukraine in no way resembles a serious candidate country). They have indicated that they believe that Ukraine must cede some territory for peace. They recently declined to label Russia the “aggressor” at the UN. They have re-established diplomatic links with Russia. There are serious signs that they are sceptical of the narrative about Churchillian Zelensky and brave Ukraine defending its sovereignty. On the other hand it seems they are still talking about selling arms to Ukraine; Trump recently said that in return for signing the mineral deal, quite whatever that is, Ukraine will get ‘the right to fight on and arms’ [1] and they are still talking about a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. Indeed Trump recently said that “Putin has accepted this”, only to be corrected by the Russian Foreign Ministry. [2] So, from this point of view alone, the road to peace seems already rather rocky.
Meanwhile the hopeless European leaders are trying to show they have what it takes – without the US. Predictably enough, (and predicted by this website), they are showing renewed interest in stealing the entirety of Russian central bank funds in Ukraine. Not surprisingly, the UK is trying to put Britain on the map by leading the way in this foolish endeavour with the out-of-his-depth Lammy calling for it, “Europe has to act quickly, and I believe we should move from freezing assets to seizing assets”. [3] The EU’s Foreign Affairs representative Kaja Kallas has been more or less declaring war on Russia. The absurd von der Leyen turned up in Kiev the other day with her usual inane Cheshire cat grin, which never seems to diminish despite the ever increasing body count.
So. On the one hand, a US administration which has shown some grasp of realism but which apparently has still not got the measure of the Kremlin and, on the other, an attempt, by the usual suspects, (the leaders of the Baltic States, Poland and the UK), trying to reinvigorate the death machine in Ukraine. I think that it is more likely, in the end, that Europe will back down and will not want to go to war against Russia without the US. They can always focus on reconstruction and Ukraine joining the EU. Putin has never objected to Ukraine joining the EU but this has not been widely reported in Western media so it can be presented as a win against Russia. I can’t see Russia agreeing to any kind of serious European ‘peacekeeping’ force in Ukraine for the obvious reason that Kiev will just try to use it as a private army against Russia. It is worth pointing out that just by joining the EU Kiev will get ‘security guarantees’ since EU membership, since the Lisbon Treaty, includes a military mutual support clause; materials not actual force engagement. That might appease Kiev.
It does seem that the writing is on the wall for Kiev. Perhaps, in Kiev, they are trying to figure out whether they can continue the war based on being able to buy US weapons, with funds released by this putative minerals deal, and promises of further EU aid. They may even be dreaming of the weapons they could buy if the EU stole all of Russia’s $300 billion in central bank funds and gave it to them. The US seems to be focussed on turning Ukraine into a money-making opportunity, with the risk that they still seem to be allowing for the sale of arms to Kiev. It seems the US is backing out of a strategic US-Russia confrontation while being willing to allow a low-level regional war to continue with the EU backing Kiev if they want. For example; the US could even sign a document agreeing that Crimea is part of Russia, while Kiev continues to insist on its return. The EU is scrabbling around, talking tough, but, I think, is more likely to back down in the end. The ‘face-saving’ measure of a ‘European peacekeeping’ force is going to have to be dropped though. The best we can hope for, in my opinion, at this stage is that Kiev decides to focus on using their ‘economic partnership’ with the US for reconstruction, not war, and the EU decides to save face by focussing on rapidly admitting Ukraine to the EU, and Russia secures their key points. Kiev may try and drag out the final defeat somewhat longer if the war voices in the EU continue to find a way to send weapons and financial aid to them. There is a remote but real possibility of an internal Ukrainian collapse with some factions not accepting a peace deal and resorting to anti-Russia, (even anti-EU!) terrorism. At this point it isn’t clear what will happen but this does look very much like the messy end and “ugly Russian victory” predicated by John Mearsheimer.
Notes
- https://www.reuters.com/world/zelenskiy-plans-travel-us-meet-trump-minerals-deal-sources-say-2025-02-25/
- https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-russia-ukraine-macron-european-peacekeepers-kremlin-moscow-rcna193588
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/26/ukraine-war-briefing-calls-grow-to-spend-all-of-russias-frozen-billions-on-ukrainian-defence