The Collation of the Losers is still at it:
Under post-ceasefire guarantees provided by the United States and Europe to Ukraine, peacekeepers could in certain circumstances repel Russian forces, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told ZDF public television in an interview, adding that this remained a far-off prospect. Pressed by interviewers for details on the possible security guarantees floated by the United States in Monday’s Berlin talks with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Merz said the guarantors would need to repel Russian forces should there be a violation of any ceasefire terms. [1]
This is all dreams within dreams, delirium within delirium.
I am pretty sure the US has consistently said no US troops in Ukraine. Are Britain, France and Germany going to engage Russian forces in Donetsk when different interpretations of who controls the “free economic zone” break out into the open? You can bet Zelensky and his nationalists are fervently hoping for just such a moment. Which is why Russia is not going to sign a “ceasefire agreement” predicated on this arrangement.
Haven’t I read, countless times, that Russia has unequivocally said, “No European or NATO troops in Ukraine”. Wasn’t this the whole point on the ‘special operation’? I guess they might allow one or two advisers, far from the front-lines to allow the Europeans to save face, but it is extremely hard to imagine Russia agreeing to any ceasefire which allows European/NATO forces to be inserted into Ukraine in any significant numbers.
And “repel”? These are dreams on top of dreams. EU leaders in their hubris believed that they could defeat Russia by economic sanctions. 19 packages later and that hasn’t worked. (Nor will it work; the question is existential for Russia and security exigencies trump economic pain). Now they believe they can smuggle a couple of battalions of their enfeebled forces into Ukraine and they will “repel” battle-hardened and well-equipped Russia forces. It might not even come to a gun-fight on the fields of Zaporizhia. Putin could just drop a few medium range ballistic missiles onto the cluster of UK soldiers in their hotel in Kiev and that’s that.
And, finally, Russia is not a mosquito which can be “repelled” just because a German says so. Russia is a nuclear power. They also have a certain memory of being “repelled’ by German forces. They might just react.
Merz is living in some kind of dream world inside a phantasy. it is amazing.
One final comment; I must have read countless times between 2014 and 2022 the line that Putin is using the ideology of the defeat of the Nazis as a mechanism to control and unify his people. And yet; with German leaders talking about “repelling” Russian forces, perhaps he was not so far off the track.
European Security is ‘inextricably’ tied to Ukraine’s?
He [Merz] said that European security “is, and this is becoming particularly clear these days, inextricably linked to the fate and security of Ukraine.” “Inextricably,” he stressed. [2]
I wonder if any journalist has asked Merz to explain this? I doubt it. Just how? Is the idea that if Ukraine “falls” Russian forces will just continue westwards into Poland and Germany? This must be what he means, since there is no other explanation. But, at the same time, these people never tire of telling us how many years it will take Russia to even take the remaining territory they claim in Ukraine. And this is in the East of Ukraine, where they have some support. I am not a military analyst but it seems to me that the chances of Russian taking all of Ukraine and then being able to launch a meaningful ‘invasion’ of Poland, of the kind that takes and holds land, are quite minimal. But, the real point is the political analysis. The truth is the opposite. European Security lies in cooling this down, letting Russia feel that their security concerns have been satisfied, and looking to find a modus vivendi with Russia. They key is this; the reasons Russia has given for their operation in Ukraine are the actual reasons. This is consistent with what they have been saying for years. It is consistent with general Russian behaviour since the fall of the USSR – limited military force to secure their borders and contested territories on their borders, such as concerns South Ossetia and Georgia in 2008, but no large-scale attempts to “invade and conquer” anyone. European security is only “inextricably linked” to the fate of Ukraine if one believes that Russia is an Imperial Power bent on conquering as much land as possible for itself. * But – there is simply zero evidence for this view. Just saying it is so doesn’t make it so. Having said that; the more they say this, the more they do invest their security in Ukraine, the more they choose to tie themselves to the fate of Ukraine, (which is only in a war at all because of a) a group of right-wing paramilitaries who blocked the Minsk agreements and b) a foolish decision by a coup related regime to pursue NATO membership even though that was not a popular demand), the more they do sort of make that real. If you tie yourself absolutely to a country which is determined to fight Russia to the end, then sooner or later you may find yourselves fighting Russia.
* I find it unfortunate that Putin sometimes uses language, as he has done today, about claiming “our historical lands” in Ukraine, because it does provide fuel for the “revanchist” line. Lavrov tends to talk more in terms of protecting the ethnic Russian and pluralist population in the East of Ukraine and this seems more in line with standard Western thinking. It should, in theory at least, be readily understandable to European elites, many of whom have problems with minorities, for example the Welsh in the UK, and should understand some of the issues involved. (Even if, in reality, they seem to have forgotten all this when it comes to Russia). I guess Putin may feel at this point no one in the West is listening to anything they say, so it doesn’t really matter.
(Short historical note – basically my very limited mental picture of the history of Russia and Ukraine). As far as I understand it the borders of Ukraine and Russia as they stood in 1991 were the borders that were drawn up when the Ukrainian soviet Socialist Republic and Russian Soviet Socialist Republic were formed as constituent elements of the USSR after the 1917 revolution. It seems that when Putin talks about “historic lands” he may be referring back to a period before the formation of the USSR and the relevant constituent Republics. If I understand correctly, he must be referring to parts of Ukraine which were considered part of the Russian Empire at some point, and, in a different way to parts of Western Ukraine. The only approximate dates I have in my mind are that in the mid 17th century following a Treaty, (whose exact status is heavily contested), between Cossacks and the Russian Empire, Eastern Ukraine became part of the Russian Empire, and it was only somewhat later that Russia laid claim to most/all of what is modern Ukraine – from the very end of the 18th century when they took it from the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. I would just hazard a guess that when Putin talks about “historical lands” he is referring to the lands which were given, according to Russian history, to Russia by the Cossacks at the Treaty of Pereyaslav, in exchange for protection from Poland in 1654. (I would guess that Putin started this thinking in ‘Western’ terms about state security and the rights of people in Donbas, but, as the war has gone on, has become more ‘Slavic’ in his thinking – hence the talk about ‘historical lands’).
However, even if this talk of “historical lands” is unpalatable, and I confess it is to this author, (being someone with very little sense of nationalism), it still doesn’t mean that Russia is going to invade Poland tomorrow. Even this, means they are not! The “historical lands” stop at the Dnieper.
Notes
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/17/ukraine-war-briefing-peacekeepers-could-repel-russian-forces-under-ceasefire-plan-says-merz
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/dec/17/ukraine-russia-war-eu-european-council-frozen-assets-zelenskyy-europe-live-news?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-6942c7c38f080663f19371f7#block-6942c7c38f080663f19371f7