The New Observer Uncategorized Lavrov sets out the position

Lavrov sets out the position

At least someone in the Western media sees that it is important to hear the Russian point of view.

Of course; when Zelensky says he would aim to get these territories back diplomatically that may not mean much. The “regime” in Kiev probably knows that is not attainable and is just laying out this position to make their surrender sound better. The same, really, with the idea of the rump Ukraine joining NATO – this seems to be about the Kiev regime trying to extract themselves with something to show for the terrible losses they have wrought on the Ukrainian people. I cannot imagine that Russia would accept that. That would be, in effect, to go back to what the position was before February 2022 – a “Nazi” regime (in the Russian version) in Kiev backed by NATO Article 5 and disputed territory – the territories which Zelensky says he would “get back diplomatically” – between Russia and Ukraine; i.e. precisely the situation which Putin started his operations to prevent.

It is interesting to note how clear Lavrov is about claiming the territories which he says Russia built up. Presumably here he is talking about Crimea and the 4 provinces in the East which Russia now lays claim to. I am not enough of an expert on the history of this region to evaluate this claim. What I have read is that the Russian population is stronger in the cities in Donetsk and Luhansk and that pro-Russian (actually wanting to join Russia) sentiment is stronger in the original LDNR territory (based on surveys). At times I think I have detected some wriggle room from Russia on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, but I don’t see much here. There does not seem to be much openness to ideas around a referendum in these 4 provinces.

It is interesting to hear that the West has been sending the same messages via the back channels as they have publicly, Russia must leave Ukraine and accept Zelensky’s terms. Increasingly the West looks like they are making demands which exceed their capacity. The question remains. When Ukraine crumbles will the West accept the humiliation or send in the cavalry? My guess (and hope, ironically), is that they will accept the loss and find a way to massage the narrative to make it look like a draw, at least. (Emphasising how Russia has been weakened etc.). But, in this case, as Mearsheimer says, relations between the West and Russia will be poisoned for generations.