The “constitutional crisis” in Georgia

So. Here we go. The Georgian Dream party won the recent elections in Georgia. According to Western media polling in advance of the elections this party was the most popular. (“Polls indicate that Georgian Dream, seeking a fourth successive term, remains the most popular party but has lost ground since 2020, when it won a narrow parliamentary majority.”) [1] So; despite some irregularities in the election, reported by the OSCE, there is a reasonable chance that they did indeed win the election. You can rig an election but it is much harder to rig opinion polls. Of course; the opposition might argue that their coalition, formed for the sole purposes of defeating Georgian dream, together would have had more votes than Georgian Dream. So; we can say that the election is contested. The OCSE report on the elections painted a mixed picture of the elections. There were some irregularities but also “Election day was generally well organized procedurally and orderly, but it was marked by a tense environment.” At any rate the claim that the election was stolen is defendable. [2] This is a report on the official results.

The current President (a largely ceremonial role in Georgia) is refusing to leave her post and is trying to create a “constitutional crisis”. The opposition parties’ supporters are on the streets firing fireworks at the police and trying to intimidate them and the MPs. The authorities claim to have found evidence that the political opposition is organising some of the firework firing. The State Department has got in on the act, apparently, issuing sanctions against individuals including Members of Parliament (recently elected) for “undermining democracy in Georgia”. [3] European leaders are, of course, calling for the “violent clampdown” on “peaceful protestors” to end. This looks very much like a concerted, coordinated effort to topple the government of Georgia. The crime of Georgian Dream was that it dared, before the elections, to bring in a policy of making NGOs who receive significant funding from abroad declare it. The EU doesn’t like this because it exposes the extent of their infiltration into Georgian society. (As we have already pointed out – the UK actually has quite a similar law about requiring Charities to declare large foreign donations; but, no matter; consistency is not usually a hallmark of regime changers [4]). They also don’t like Georgian Dream because it promotes conservative values rather than liberal permissive values and because it apparently, wishes to proceed with EU integration but without alienating Russia. I am not an expert on Georgian politics; what I have read is that Georgian Dream is more popular in rural areas and with older people. The demonstrators on the streets seem to be young and urban. Some of them have probably benefited from EU grants and programmes. They are impatient for their European futures.

A vote has been held for a new President. The electoral college is made up of MPs and local government representatives. Opposition law-makers boycotted the process but it was easily carried. [5]

What is, objectively speaking, the case?

The irregularities reported by the OSCE may have been so great that in reality, had they not happened, Georgian Dream would not have been able to form the new government. But this is not a certainty.
While the OSCE did report some irregularities their report, when read in full, seems to paint a picture of an election which was quite effectively conducted marred by individual incidents.
The opposition forces are violently trying to force the result to be annulled.
The outgoing President is trying to force a constitutional crisis.
The US and EU are agitating actively on the side of the opposition. This agitation includes familiar false claims that the opposition is peaceful.

Point 5) above is notable. If there was a disputed election (and just because an election is disputed does not mean it is disputable) in a Western country I am quite sure that the authorities would not tolerate violence from protestors. The message would be that they should make their case peaceably. I am quite sure the forces of law and order would crack down on violent protestors – just like in Georgia. This consideration indicates that the West is not really (surprise, surprise) acting on the basis of “fairness”. But, the usual story, they are agitating for regime change.

Final thought; even if the irregularities were such that the result is really invalid, even then, would it still be a good idea to force a crisis? Is that a good idea for Georgians? Even for the West? There are evidently different groups in Georgian society – from conservatives and people who want to maintain links with Russia to those who want to rush pell-mell into the EU and adopt Western style liberalism. The views of the former are, in democracy, just as valid as those of the latter! Why not proceed slowly, trying to bring everyone with you? Instead; everything seems to be done in this mode of forcing crises and abrupt breaks. It is a foolish and self-defeating policy. If the answer to that is that this is the last chance before Georgia (also Moldova) falls back irretrievably into the orbit of Russia and this is due to Russian shadow campaigns; then the answer is obvious; talk to Russia. I don’t know specifically about Georgia; but the Kremlin was never against Ukraine joining the EU.

Again; I am reminded of Richard Sakwa’s excellent analysis. The context for all these crises, (and we haven’t finished yet), is that following the collapse of the USSR, Europe and the US did not succeed in working out a new security architecture for Europe with Russia. Nothing new was agreed. It is now clear that for NATO the collapse of the USSR was just a stage in the final defeat of Russia. And so everything proceeds on the basis of influence wars and crisis provocation. A totally unnecessary series of disasters.

Notes

The “constitutional crisis” in Georgia

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