“Tensions are escalating”. This is Dimitri Peskov’s (Kremlin’s spokesperson) rather understated response to reports in Western media that the outgoing Biden administration has authorised the use of 300 Km missiles into Russian territory, apparently, at this stage around the Kursk zone of operations.
John Mearsheimer takes the view that these missiles will not make that much difference. I am not a military expert but I find that very plausible. There are only a few thousand of these discontinued missiles in US stocks. Ukraine may only have a few hundred. Russia will be able to shoot down many of them. The US Defence Secretary in explaining previous refusals to grant Kiev permission to strike Russia with them, explained that Russia had already moved most of its airpower outside of range. I believe the US side actually said at that time that they would make little operational difference. So, why now?
This irrational and reckless act can really only be explained in one way; the outgoing Biden escalation is doing everything they can to ensure that the war continues beyond the end of their administration. Possibly out of some kind of “loyalty” to Kiev. (Or anti-Russia sentiment). I think the idea is probably to escalate the war in such a way that by the time Trump assumes the Presidency in January he will simply not be able to back out of it, as he has stated he wants to. I think this decision is aimed full-square at the incoming administration.
Russia will react. I very much doubt they will wait to see if Trump reverses the policy. Even were Trump to send them some secret messages to that effect, I doubt that would make any difference. The Kremlin is not, contrary to Western propaganda, some kind of Trump fans. They won’t forget, perhaps, that it was Trump who started arming Ukraine in 2018, after Obama had declined to. There are a wide range of options for Russia to create problems for the West. It is no coincidence that one of their spy ships has recently been nosing around Internet cables in the Irish sea. [1] Or, as I have seen today, they could arm the Houthis. They are likely to go for something that will cause problems for the West but which will not be a direct military assault; this way it will be hard for the West to return the escalation. Will NATO bomb Russia if Russia blows up the UK Internet? Or maybe there will be some upping of the ante in bombing Ukraine. Or maybe they will strike NATO supply lines to Ukraine in Poland? We will see.
In any event this is a reckless and pointless act by a senile old man. The best we can hope for is that Russia understands that and lets it go.
Notes