We’re now on day 1,000 of a conflict, that’s 1000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of sacrifices in Ukraine. We have stood with Ukraine from the start. I’ve been doubling down in my clear message that we need to ensure Ukraine has what is needed for as long as needed to win this war against Putin. In a direct message to the Russian president, Starmer added: “On day 1,000 of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, I say again: ‘End the war. Get out of Ukraine’. [1]
This is UK Prime Minister responding to Putin’s recent statements about the Russian response to ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles flying into Russia. The statement shows just how out of touch with reality Keir Starmer is. Does he really think Ukraine is still going to “win against Putin”? Of course not; even Starmer must have noticed that the official Western narrative has been mutating over the last few months and now reads more like “best negotiating position we can get for Ukraine, have to give up Crimea, accept some territorial losses” than “Russia will collapse and Russia cannot be allowed to win”. One of the differences between Putin and Western leaders is that when Putin speaks he is (despite elements of nationalist rhetoric) generally reflecting level-headed, rational analysis linked to rational and defined goals (Russian strategic security). Western leaders are wandering, lost in their own propaganda narratives. It really is a very unfortunate situation.
Starmer orders Putin to “get out”. (This follows from No. 10’s recent statement about this “depraved Russian government”). They still think they can issue orders. Truly amazing. Ukraine is near collapse politically, militarily, and economically. Russia is advancing all over the front. Russia’s military-industrial complex is burgeoning and the Russian economy robust. (Yes; you can certainly point to lost growth opportunities, but as Mearsheimer points out, security considerations usually outweigh purely economic considerations. Russia will accept a slower path to growth as a price for security). Early salivating about the “imminent fall of the Russian regime” show no sign at all of being realized. It was based on completely outdated models of Russia. Russia of 2024 is not the mess of the 1990s.
Above all. There is no plan. There never has been. In my view, they were caught by surprise that Kiev survived the initial special operation, and stumbled into arming Ukraine to fight a full-scale war against Russia. They have been stumbling ever since. No Western official that I have seen has ever explained how you can beat Russia without provoking Russia into escalation – the plan in the first two years of the war. Now that the end-game seems to be approaching they are making some gestures in the direction of provoking Russia. But, militarily, this is not going to change the reality on the battlefield, unless it leads to escalation and WWIII, (Zelensky’s dream). Even the US spokesman admitted that all ATCAMs and Storm Shadows can do is slow down the Russian advance. An entirely pointless move, purely performative. They are keeping the addict alive for as long as they can but beyond that, there is no plan. That is, except for the purely domestic party political aim of the Biden administration, which is responsible for this mess, making it over the finish line in January and dumping their mess on the next administration. But why is the British Prime Minister tying British security to that aim? Because – the only qualification to rise to the top in British politics is to learn how to reproduce official (that is US State Department) narratives better than the next man. No thought. No plan. No analysis of the international situation. No diplomacy. Just conforming to narratives, and performative actions. A total disaster.
At least I am now listening again to Pink Floyd’s album The Final Cut, strangely appropriate.
In my rearview mirror, the sun is going down
Sinking behind bridges in a mean way
I think of all the good things that we have left undone
Suffer premonitions
Confirm suspicions of the holocaust to comeOoh, ooh
Ooh, ooh-ooh-oohThe rusty wire that holds the cork that keeps the anger in
Gives way and suddenly it’s day again
The sun is in the east even though the day is done (ooh-ooh-ooh)Two suns in the sunset
Could be the human race is run.
Notes