This is the new dream-sequence which European media and political classes have now taken up en masse. This is an example from today’s Guardian:
US president claims if it weren’t for him ‘really bad’ things would have happened to Russia amid signs he is frustrated with Russian president’s stalling of peace talks [1]
Note; that it is the Guardian who is saying that “Russia is stalling peace talks”. A whole host of European politicians have been saying the same thing in recent days. “Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire”. “Putin doesn’t want peace”. And, so on. The whole thing is fully delusional. It is like a man who sits by himself in a room and tells the walls his complaints about his wife. Then he goes to marriage counselling and tells the Counsellor; “My wife doesn’t listen to me. She doesn’t want to sort this out”.
Russia has been saying for some time, (I think since June of last year at least); that the basic condition for a ceasefire is that Ukraine withdraws from the 4 provinces now claimed by Russia. They have never talked in terms of a ceasefire, and then talks. Ukraine and their delusional Coalition of the Willing partners have come up with this idea about a ceasefire and then negotiations as a strategy to try to rescue Ukraine’s falling position. They would have the ceasefire and during it flood Ukraine with arms. Meanwhile Kiev would do what they did in March 2022; try to put the question of territory onto a long-track, (in the hope that in 15 years a new government in Russia will be more sympathetic to them, especially, since they would plan for sanctions to be maintained). It is simply a plan to bolster Ukraine’s position and save the Kiev regime. Why on earth would Russia agree to it? It would mean throwing away much of the advantage they currently hold as a result of nearly three years of fighting.
Russia is not “refusing peace”. Russia is simply sticking to their guns. They have a set of demands. These are absolutely known because they are frequently stated. When their demands are substantially met, or look like being so, then there can be a ceasefire. (Or; it is necessary to defeat Russia; but no one has a realistic plan for doing that).
The European political and media classes are doing what they have done all along, including, when, for example they planned to put Ukraine into the EU and refused to even discuss with Russia their concerns. [2] (Perfectly reasonable concerns, since if Ukraine is in the EU that is going to impact Russia economically). And when they planned to put Ukraine into NATO despite Russia having made it abundantly clear that they viewed this as an unacceptable strategic threat. They come up with plans and just expect Russia to fall into place. There is no concept of diplomacy with Russia. In this case they (EU political class) have come up with this plan for a Ukrainian semi-victory; a ceasefire, “Porcupine Ukraine”, and kicking the territorial questions down the road, the latter a typical EU solution. It would enable them to save face, and to militarise the EU, (something which they now think is important given Trump’s lack of enthusiasm for NATO). It does nothing to address Russia’s concerns. And, yet, they now strut about berating Russia for not going along with the new plan. But, Russia has not been consulted about the new plan, any more than they have been consulted about anything else. The hubris of these people is breath-taking.
While the US administration has at times seemed able to see Russia’s point of view, for example about NATO in Ukraine, all the signs are that Trump has not understood the situation. It appears he simply sees it as two sides fighting irrationally and believes that he can (by force of personality) bring them to a ceasefire. This means he has not really understood Russia’s position or the strategic factors in play, or the history of the broken Minsk agreements. The ceasefire then talks leading to peace plan is dead in the water. As a recipe there may be wars which can be solved by this approach. But this is not one of them. A Great Power is insisting on its strategic security – and that is non-negotiable.
Notes
- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/may/27/donald-trump-bribery-pardon-sheriff-tariffs-harvard-ukraine-us-politics-live-news-updates
- Barroso [President of the EU Commission] being quoted by news agencies as late as 29 November 2013 as saying: ‘Russia’s inclusion in the talks on setting up an Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine is wholly unacceptable.’ Sakwa, Richard. Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands (p. 76). Bloomsbury Publishing. Kindle Edition.