This is Macron:
A ceasefire is needed as soon as possible. And strong action if Russia continues to try to buy time and refuse peace. [1]
We have discussed the delusional thinking around the US ceasefire initiative here and here. Marcon is following in the emerging delusions about this. A lot of this springs from Zelensky and whoever tells him what to say, (a team in Ukrainian intelligence one imagines). From Zelensky this line is a tactic. He is trying to persuade the West that “Russia is not serious about peace” so they, Kiev, can continue to receive more weapons and so the war can go on. They want to do this either because they retain the belief that they can still take back territory on the battlefield, though I think that stage has passed, or because they simply see no other way, given that they have ruled out meeting Russia’s key demands. There does seem to be a certain Ukraine-Euro consolidation around von der Leyen’s “porcupine Ukraine”. (It is not her idea but I am using her term for it). The idea, and it has been around for a long time, is to make the 80% of Ukraine which remains in Kiev’s control so impregnable that Russia will not think of “attacking again”. I think there are several motivations for this idea; from the point of view of Kiev it means they have not lost; they can continue to talk about retaking the lost territories “by diplomatic means”. From a regime survival point this is clearly advantageous, though I don’t want to suggest that there are some who do not genuinely believe in their cause. From the point of view of the EU it provides a kind of face-saving fallback option. They didn’t “defeat Russia in Ukraine” but they have stopped Russia going any further. Coupled with the claim that Russia wants to attack Europe they can still present this has a kind of win over Russia. And, I think, at this point, that is what is most essential for European leaders, they need to show the world that they have contained and dominated Russia. (Even while the actual reality is that Russia has achieved a good part of their aims despite a massive US-European effort to stop them). And, of course, this is yet another opportunity to borrow billions and invest in the arms industry; yet another transfer of wealth from citizens to corporate and financial elites. “Porcupine Ukraine” is not a viable military idea. Even if the front-line could be stabilised, Russia would retain the ability to send missiles into Ukraine at will. This is not Israel and Iron Dome v. a few dozen simple projectiles. Ukraine would remain an entirely non-viable country, unable to attract any foreign investment, (except war investment), and totally dependent on subsidies from the West. But, that the idea is not workable, has never stopped Europe before and I don’t suppose it will stop them now.
As for “refusing peace”. I notice that Macron does not ask the US to stop the flow of arms and intelligence. Who is “refusing peace”? The “peace” that Russia is said to be “refusing” in reality amounts to a loss. Russia is being asked to stop pressing forwards and to allow “Porcupine Ukraine” to go ahead. Why would Russia agree to that, since it amounts, in effect to Minsk 3? And we all know what Ukraine did about Minsk 2.
Notes