The new US Administration seems ready to cut “Ukraine” loose. The Defence Secretary told European leaders in Brussels (I think) a) that Ukraine isn’t going to be joining NATO and b) that the Trump administration is ready to go along with a transfer of territory to Russia. I says seems. While this apparent radical shift in US policy is (extremely) welcome news, it remains to be seen how this translates into actual negotiating positions which will require detailed work and new treaties. I am more hopeful than I was a week ago but I would still not put the chances of a negotiated outcome at more than 50%.
What European leaders do next is going to be interesting. Starmer seems to be in a world of his own, re-declaring that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path to NATO membership”. That is all the more strange considering it is not in his power to gift this. Any one NATO country can block it. It looks like Trump will. Hungary almost certainly would. The ridiculous Ursula van der Leyen is still peddling the line about “authoritarian states are watching”. The nearly equally idiotic EU Representative for Foreign Affairs former Estonian politician Kaja Kallas is also using an analogy; in her case this is “appeasement” reminiscent of Munich in 1938. Both of these are examples of “heuristics” – irrational thinking. (China will make its determinations about Taiwan and the South China Sea based on the balance of power in that region. If anything, they will be much more concerned about the US dropping Ukraine – for rather obvious reasons; it enables a US focus on them. The Munich analogy only works for people who think that Putin is trying to recreate the Russian Empire; since he isn’t the analogy is not relevant). Zelensky is still trying to put the frighteners on with claims that Russia could attack NATO “next year”! He is sounding more and more phantasical (if he ever didn’t). Does anyone still listen to him? Macron as usual is trying his best to sound statesman like and warns of “capitulation”. The German Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius has been saying that the US should not have given away its negotiating position in advance. He is another one who has not being paying attention. What the US has done is simply meet meet Putin’s minimum condition for talks to begin. Calls by Marcon, Starmer and others that Ukraine should be at the centre of the negotiations are nonsensical. Ukraine has no negotiating position – naturally they are not invited to the negotiations.
The media is doing their bit. (Possibly at the beck and call of intelligence agencies?). The Guardian published some “analysis” talking about confused messages coming from the US, in an attempt to undermine the clear shift in policy. Al Jazeera has published a long piece claiming that Russia is running out of tanks and ammunition; i.e. “just keep this going a bit longer folks, victory is just around the corner”, (the same fiction the media has been peddling for two years).
Are the Europeans going to step up and double or triple their contribution and “support” Ukraine without the US as Kaja Kallas promises? Do they have or could they source enough weapons even if they can find the money? (Are they finally going to gather the nerve to steal all of Russia’s money frozen in the European financial system? My guess is they won’t have the bottle). And – even if they could, what about Ukraine’s manpower problem? At the moment they are trying to act tough. We should also remember that there are multiple forces in Europe; the Eastern Europeans (Baltic States and Poland) who sometimes sound ready to start WWIII in their Russia-phobia, the remnants of the “old, liberal Europe”, who don’t know whether they are coming or going, who seem ready to “support” Ukraine, but only up to a safe point, and of course the “pro-Russian” states, (as the liberal media call them), Hungary and Slovakia. There does seem a small danger that the pro-war Eastern Europeans might drag Europe into something, but in reality, I doubt they have the power and influence. Von der Leyen was “bravely” talking about renewing the commitment for Ukraine to join the EU. Go ahead, if that is how you will save your face. (Putin has up till this point at any rate not blocked this and Ukraine could have followed this path in 2021 or 2022 without this senseless war).
Let’s see what happens. It is very interesting to watch if Europe can be tough without the US especially given the divergent forces within Europe.
Final note. I was amused by the US Vice President, Vance, lecturing the Romanians and Europe for annulling their recent Presidential election on the grounds of an apparent Russia social media campaign. As he points out – cancelling elections because of some social media posts is hardly democracy.
Update
For now at least the Guardian is still taking Zelensky seriously headlining his call for a European army in Ukraine. (Zelensky has seen an opportunity; EU leaders are smarting after their public dressing down from Vance and their are some bold calls for European strength independent of the US, and he is trying to exploit the moment). “Our army alone is not enough, we need your support,” he said. He actually means French and German and UK troops should go and fight Russia in Ukraine.