The New Observer International affairs Who is trying to wrench Ukraine from whom?

Who is trying to wrench Ukraine from whom?

The words of Keir Starmer;

Putin’s ambition to wrench Ukraine away from its closest partners has been a monumental strategic failure. Instead, we are closer than ever, and this partnership will take that friendship to the next level. [1]

The partnership referred to is the 100 year Reich, I mean “investment in our countries for the next century”. There are lots of new weapons and a small amount of start-up funding in what are claimed to be non-military areas of the economy but which look rather dual-use to me.

But, who was trying to “wrench Ukraine away from whom”?

Let’s start with the recognition that before 2014 Ukraine was a divided country. Put rather basically; in the East of the country were found; more ethnic Russians, more Ukrainians who felt a kinship with Russia, more support for the party of the deposed President Yanukovych, less support for NATO membership, and less support for EU membership. As you move Westwards through the country these figures changed; less ethnic Russians, more support for joining the EU, and so on. This is inevitable given the history of this region. So, already, we see that there was a problem, and either side trying to pull Ukraine into their exclusive orbit was bound to cause a huge problem. This is what the West has done – with its insistence on dragging Ukraine into NATO and the EU, refusing to talk with Russia about either of these points, its pouring in billions to shape Ukrainian society in a liberal direction, its fomentation of the 2014 coup, its arming of the nationalist faction post-coup, the EU signing the political part of the association agreement with the coup government even before any elections, and so on. In my view, Russia, too also tried to pull in the other direction. But, the Russian position was always more balanced. Putin went out of his way even after 2022 to say that Russia would not block Ukraine joining the EU. And, for Russia, contrary to Western propaganda, it has never been about the whole of Ukraine. The West tried to grab the whole of the divided country. Initially Russia would have left the country intact and even in the EU; if it had agreed not to join NATO and to implement Minsk. (There is an argument here about Crimea; Mearsheimer argues that Russia may not even have annexed Crimea after the Western coup if NATO had been completely off the table). Now Russia is trying to grab 4 of 24 regions of Ukraine. This is the direct result of the West refusing to negotiate.

The historical fact is that Russia (or “Putin”) did not try and seize the whole of Ukraine. Neither economically not militarily. (Therefore, there is no “monumental strategic failure”). On the other hand; the West has been doing precisely this for years and doing so – by hook or by crook. Despite all the concrete evidence being that joining the EU was only partly popular in Ukraine, and prior to 2022 joining NATO was not a clear popular choice. [2]

Keir Starmer’s “friendship” has been, literally, the kiss of death for tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

Notes

  1. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-ukraine-sign-landmark-100-year-partnership-to-deepen-security-ties-and-strengthen-partnership-for-future-generations
  2. https://thenewobserver.co.uk/how-popular-was-joining-nato-in-ukraine/ https://thenewobserver.co.uk/some-people-in-ukraine-want-to-be-part-of-or-linked-to-russia/