Poor Zelensky is increasingly obviously looking like a drowning man clutching at straws.
Entirely predictably, “we will support you for as long as it takes” turns out to have a shelf-life considerably shorter than eternity. Only Starmer is still talking about “as long as it takes”, but that just makes him look as delusional as Zelensky. Everyone else has given up. In Germany Scholz has been talking down support. The US has made it clear that they are de-prioritising “European security” in favour of a renewed focus on the threat from peer-competitor China. [1] From the point of view of realism this is exactly what they should be doing. Russia is no threat to the US. China is, potentially.
Zelensky is apparently still talking about a US and/or European force of “peacekeepers” in Ukraine, “A multinational deterrence force based in Ukraine after a ceasefire would need to be 100,000- to 150,000-strong, Zelenskyy said”. The Guardian’s Defence Editor doesn’t seem to think that is a strange idea. [1] He should. There is zero chance this is going to happen. One of Russia’s main war aims is the demilitarisation of Ukraine. They aren’t going to agree to Zelensky’s hostage plan. I would expect that when it comes down to it Macron’s bold words about French troops on the ground might melt away. [2] Only Starmer would be stupid enough and even he, when he realised the US was not involved, would probably bottle it. The new US Secretary of Defence pointedly told European leaders that any European troops in Ukraine would be outside the NATO umbrella.
Zelensky is in the process of being thrown under the bus. Silly man for trusting all those flag-wrapping Western deputies. I could (and think I did) have said this was going to happen.
It looks like Trump’s idea is to stop Ukraine being a budget outflow for the US. It looks like he would like to extract the US from this foolish war which is not in US interests. (I do not in fact doubt that he is genuinely bothered by the deaths; though he doesn’t seem to mind Palestinians being killed). He may be trying to extract the US while leaving it up to Europe if they want to continue the war or back down. He may still be prepared to sell weapons to Europe, so long as it is a good business for the US. It will be interesting to see how Europe (and the UK) respond. Are they going to step up to the plate and “support” Ukraine or melt away, without US backing? An interesting moment for Europe. I think Zelensky knows that Europe is more than likely to melt away without the US – which is why he keeps talking about how necessary the US is as part of the “security guarantees” he wants. But, the words of Hegseth the US Defence Secretary [1] about how Ukraine is a European problem are not going to give him a lot of hope.
Notes