This is my advice for his team:
- Drop the sanctions threats. Firstly, Russia seems to be adept at getting round sanctions and plenty of countries are outside the sanctions system. The very worst the US could do now would be secondary sanctions aimed at Russia’s energy exports. Even then I imagine that a combination of China remaining as a purchaser and creative solutions like the ‘shadow fleet’ would reduce the impact. Secondly, more pain might increase war fatigue in Russia but against that there is a “rally round the flag under adversity affect”. Thirdly; it is rude. It is obvious, because they say it time and time again, the Kremlin and the wider Russian leadership, want to be treated “like an equal partner”. Treating them like a child who you can threaten into compliance is against that aim. So; they won’t accept it. Drop the sanctions threats. They are ineffective and counter-productive.
- Russia’s war aims are really quite clear. All this nonsense about “imperial war of aggression” and all the rest of it is pure media puff. Put it to one side; listen to what they are saying. Putin has been very consistent all along. The minimum they can accept is: a written document saying Ukraine will not (ever) join NATO, Crimea is recognised as part of Russia, Donetsk and Luhansk are recognised as part of Russia, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are recognised as part of Russia, (or, and this is just my theory – there may just be some wriggle room here if they are completely demilitarised), and the rest of Ukraine demilitarizes, which necessarily implies no major Western arms supply or troop presence. In addition, let’s not forget the original demands for a pull-back of NATO troops in the countries which were in NATO in 1997 and the US to pull their nuclear weapons out of Europe, and so on. [1] These latter points may bear some negotiation in the way that arms reduction treaties can generally be negotiated – on a mutual basis. The other points will all need to be met. They are not a starting point in negotiations and can’t be traded. If the US side is not prepared to accept them they may as well go home now.
- They may have already grasped this; but, don’t listen to Zelensky. He has no negotiating position and is just producing various dreams.
- Lavrov some time ago said that sanctions relief is going to have to be part of a final deal. At the very least Europe and the UK are going to have to stop stealing Russian funds and give them all their money back (including the stolen interest).
Notes