The debate about lockdowns tends to get quite polarised. On the one hand some people insist that they are “following the science” and that lockdowns are necessary to get the R number down and “protect the NHS”. On the other hand others argue that they are an excessive restriction of basic freedoms and that they are not cost-free. On this side of the argument people point to the huge economic fall-out from lockdowns as well as other ‘collateral damage’ such as problems with mental health.
The pro-lockdown position in the UK is essentially driven by public health officials. (Having initially gone for ‘herd immunity’ they quickly got cold feet and backtracked when the first deaths started occurring). They study the R number and make predictions (with more or less accuracy) about NHS bed occupancy. The point of lockdowns is to prevent the NHS overflowing. It turns out that the NHS has very little surge capacity.
Continue reading “Do we need lockdowns?”